What's the over and under?

John asked a good question (below) and here's my reply to him, but
that also makes for a fun guessing game.

"5 runners for 6 hrs, adding 2 more for 3 = 36hrs of running. My
guess is a mere 3 falls"

Been raining for 2 days and there's a chance of more rain tonite.

How many runners will fall, slip or trip tonight between 3am and 9am
on the potentially muddy & slippery greenbelt?

At 15:59, john p <johnrp> wrote:

> What is the wipeout prediction for tomorrow? 5 runners totaling
> roughly 25 hours of trail running. 4 wipeouts? 6? Do I hear 8?
>
> If you aren't falling you aren't skiing. Does that work for trail
> running too?
>